Markets suggest St. Mary’s (MN) Cardinals winning is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘St. Mary’s (MN) Cardinals’ outcome plummeting from ~36% to 0.05% in 24 hours.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend had shown a slight dip of ~2% for St. Mary’s, but this was entirely overshadowed by a dramatic 36% drop in the last 24 hours. This sharp acceleration to near-zero odds directly coincides with the official report 11 hours ago that North Dakota State Women’s Basketball cruised past Saint Mary’s 94-36. This asymmetry clearly indicates a market reacting to definitive, game-ending news, rather than a gradual sentiment drift.

Interpretation

This sentiment shift reflects the market’s complete absorption of the game’s outcome. With St. Mary’s (MN) Cardinals having decisively lost to North Dakota State Bison, traders have repriced the odds to near zero, effectively resolving the market. The extreme price movement suggests that any remaining uncertainty has been eliminated, aligning with the confirmed final score.

Research Leads

  • Contact St. Mary’s (MN) Cardinals Athletics: What are their post-game reflections and season outlook after such a significant loss to NDSU?
  • Interview NDSU Bison Athletics: How does this dominant 94-36 win, as reported 11 hours ago, impact their conference play strategy and team morale moving forward?
  • Analyze game statistics: What specific performance metrics (e.g., shooting percentage, turnovers) explain St. Mary’s unusually low score of 36 points?

Context

This market has effectively resolved based on a confirmed real-world event. Prediction markets for sports outcomes typically converge to 100% or 0% once the result is known, making this a textbook example of market efficiency in incorporating new, definitive information.

Confidence & Caveats

Prediction markets on sports outcomes, especially after the event has concluded and the result is known, are typically 100% accurate in reflecting the outcome. The signal is extremely strong given the price near zero, indicating a definitive outcome. The low trading volume of $393.84 might suggest limited participation, but it does not diminish the certainty of the outcome.

What Next

Given the market has effectively resolved to a near-zero price for St. Mary’s winning, further significant price movements are unlikely. Any remaining trading activity might reflect final position closures rather than new sentiment. Traders could monitor official game result confirmations across various sports outlets.

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 1003977
  • Token ID: 90702191141299538709183292874050852966854050421711164100310996098989505839832
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Breaking Signal
  • 7-Day Trend: -0.02%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.36%
  • Current Price: $0.00
  • Volume (24h): $394
  • Open Interest: $7,368

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.