Markets suggest the U.K.’s monthly inflation being 0.0% in December is becoming LESS likely, with the ‘Yes’ outcome falling sharply from 37.4% to 17%.

News Timeline

What happened in the last 24-48 hours: – 6 hours ago: “Barclays PLC Stock in December 2025: 60% Rally, £1.5bn Buybacks and What Comes Next for BARC Shares” (ts2.tech) → This report focuses on Barclays’ stock performance and outlook for 2025/2026, contributing to the general UK financial market context. – 12 hours ago: “HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) Stock: December 2025 Price, Dividend and 2026 Outlook After BoE Stress Test and Chair Change” (ts2.tech) → This article discusses HSBC’s stock and 2026 outlook following Bank of England stress tests, providing further context on the banking sector. – 22 hours ago: “Market outlook: three important themes for 2026” (The Armchair Trader) → This outlook offers a broader perspective on market themes for the upcoming year, potentially shaping general investor sentiment.

Market response: The sharp decline in the ‘Yes’ outcome for 0.0% inflation could indicate a market re-evaluation based on the broader financial outlook presented in these related reports, even if no direct inflation news was released. The timing of the price movement, coinciding with these fresh financial news snippets, suggests a correlation in sentiment.

Asymmetry Analysis

The 7-day trend showed a slight increase of 4.7% for the ‘Yes’ outcome, indicating a prior, albeit weak, expectation for 0.0% inflation. However, the last 24 hours saw a dramatic reversal, with the ‘Yes’ outcome plummeting by 20.4%. This strong asymmetry, with a gap of over 25% between the 7-day and 24-hour trends, suggests a fundamental shift in market perception. This could be due to new information, a collective re-evaluation of existing economic data, or a technical ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ driven by larger players. The timing of this reversal seems to align with the release of the aforementioned financial outlooks, potentially shifting broader economic expectations.

Why This Matters

Markets often price in information before it becomes widely known, offering unique research angles. Building on ts2.tech’s reporting on banking sector performance and The Armchair Trader’s 2026 outlook, these angles emerge: the market might be anticipating higher-than-expected inflation or a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England, leading to a diminished chance of 0.0% inflation.

What To Investigate

Building on ts2.tech’s reporting, journalists should verify: 1. Contact ONS sources: Are there any preliminary indicators or internal assessments suggesting December’s inflation rate will deviate significantly from 0.0%? 2. Interview UK economists: What are their updated forecasts for December CPI, considering recent financial sector performance and broader market outlooks? 3. Review Bank of England statements: Has there been any subtle shift in forward guidance or commentary that might indicate a change in inflation expectations? 4. Analyze retail spending data: Are there any early signs of consumer behavior in December that could influence inflation figures beyond current projections?

Context

This market tracks a specific, precise inflation target. Such binary outcomes are highly sensitive to even minor shifts in economic sentiment or data. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ pattern, where a previous bullish trend reverses sharply into a bearish one, indicates a strong change in market conviction, making it a critical signal to watch.

Confidence & Caveats

This analysis is based on predictive market data and related news. While prediction markets offer unique insights, economic forecasts are subject to numerous variables and inherent uncertainties. This signal, rated as ‘Exceptional’, reflects a strong directional shift but should be considered alongside traditional economic indicators.

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 957795
  • Token ID: 111610363851401157992018931471575544747608273353180613651140000728403419222139
  • Quality Score: 8/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.05%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.20%
  • Current Price: $0.17
  • Volume (24h): $50
  • Open Interest: $244

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.