Markets suggest a Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win for Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from approximately 90.4% to 73% in 24 hours. This shift follows the recent revelation of Steam’s ‘Best of 2025’ lists, which appears to have influenced sentiment among prediction market traders.
Asymmetry Analysis
The 7-day trend showed a rising likelihood for ‘No’ (up 7.78%), but the last 24 hours saw a sharp reversal with ‘No’ falling by 17.42%. This strong asymmetry suggests a significant shift in sentiment, potentially driven by new information or a market correction. The reversal began shortly after the most recent news reports surfaced, coinciding with the release of Steam’s ‘Best of 2025’ lists.
Interpretation
This could mean that traders are increasingly confident in ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’s’ chances, possibly due to recent discussions or early reviews not yet widely publicized, or perhaps based on the context of other popular games mentioned in the ‘Steam Best Games of 2025’ lists. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type suggests a strong, rapid decline in ‘No’ sentiment. This might reflect a sudden realization among traders that the game’s prospects for the award are stronger than previously thought, especially in light of competitor performance in the ‘Best of 2025’ lists. It might also be a reaction to the broader landscape of 2025 games, as highlighted by the recent Steam lists. If other strong contenders are underperforming, or ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’ is gaining unexpected traction, this could make its award win more likely.
Research Leads
- Investigate community sentiment: Monitor gaming forums and social media for discussions around ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’s’ story quality compared to other 2025 releases, especially those highlighted in recent ‘Steam Best Games’ lists (e.g., Beebom, Notebookcheck).
- Contact Warhorse Studios (developers): Are there any upcoming announcements, patches, or developer interviews that could influence public perception of the game’s story?
- Review competitor performance: Analyze the critical reception and player feedback for other strong contenders in the ‘Outstanding Story-Rich Game’ category, cross-referencing with the ‘Steam Best of 2025’ lists mentioned by sources like All Out Gaming.
Context
The Steam Awards are community-voted, making them highly sensitive to public perception and gaming trends. The ‘Outstanding Story-Rich Game’ category is particularly competitive, with many strong contenders released in 2025. This market movement suggests a re-evaluation of KC:D II’s standing among these titles.
Confidence & Caveats
We have medium-high confidence in this signal’s strength, given the significant price movement and clear reversal pattern. However, awards markets are inherently speculative, and community sentiment can shift rapidly. The moderate liquidity in this market means price movements could be amplified by smaller trades.
What Next
Traders might watch for further community reactions to the recently released ‘Steam Best Games of 2025’ lists. Any new announcements from Warhorse Studios or significant shifts in critical reception for ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’ could influence its odds. A sustained move below 70% for ‘No’ could signal stronger conviction in the game’s win, while a rebound above 75% might suggest a technical correction.
📚 Revision History
- v1: Dec 30, 2025 12:14 UTC (Quality 7) – Original publication ⭐
Market Metadata
- Market ID: 821059
- Token ID: 23661773594696040916746794344638835041799705339568285185221582760666409174588
- Quality Score: 7/9
- Classification: Market Shift
- 7-Day Trend: 0.08%
- 24-Hour Trend: -0.17%
- Current Price: $0.73
- Volume (24h): $7,192
- Open Interest: $1,844
Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.