The Signal

Prediction markets are repricing the likelihood of Kingdom Come: Deliverance II winning Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards, with the ‘No’ outcome falling sharply from approximately 90.4% to 73% over 24 hours. This represents a significant reversal from the week-long trend that had seen the ‘No’ outcome rise, indicating a sudden and strong shift in sentiment among traders.

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News Timeline

What happened in the last 24-48 hours: – 59 minutes ago: “Steam reveals its best selling games for 2025” (All Out Gaming) → This report highlights the top-selling games of 2025 on Steam, providing context on the year’s successful titles. – 5 hours ago: “Steam Best Games of 2025 List Shocks Players as Unexpected Titles Dominate Sales” (Beebom) → This article discusses unexpected titles dominating sales lists for 2025, potentially shifting perceptions of contenders. – 10 hours ago: “Steam ranks its best selling games for 2025, with AAA and indie surprises making the charts” (Notebookcheck) → Details on Valve’s official best-selling games for the year, including AAA and indie surprises. Market response: The sharp decline in the ‘No’ outcome began shortly after these reports on Steam’s ‘Best of 2025’ lists started to emerge, suggesting a correlation between the news and market sentiment.

What The Data Shows

The market’s 24-hour movement of -17.42% for the ‘No’ outcome, contrasting with a 7-day rise of +7.78%, indicates a ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal. This pattern, combined with the timing of recent news regarding Steam’s top games of 2025, points to a reactive market. While the 24-hour volume of $7,191.78 and open interest of $1,843.86 are moderate, they are sufficient to drive significant price changes in this niche market.

Interpretation

This could mean that traders are increasingly confident in ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’s’ chances, possibly due to recent discussions or early reviews not yet widely publicized, or perhaps based on the context of other popular games mentioned in the ‘Steam Best Games of 2025’ lists. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type suggests a strong, rapid decline in ‘No’ sentiment. This might reflect a sudden realization among traders that the game’s prospects for the award are stronger than previously thought, especially in light of competitor performance in the ‘Best of 2025’ lists. It might also be a reaction to the broader landscape of 2025 games, as highlighted by the recent Steam lists. If other strong contenders are underperforming, or ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’ is gaining unexpected traction, this could make its award win more likely.

Why This Matters For Journalists

Markets often react to information before it becomes mainstream consensus. This sharp reversal suggests that specialized traders are re-evaluating Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’s award prospects in light of the recently released ‘Steam Best of 2025’ lists. Following sources like Beebom and Notebookcheck, these market signals provide journalists with early research angles to understand potential shifts in the gaming community’s perception.

Important

HOW MARKETS CAN BE WRONG: Awards markets, especially those based on community votes, are highly subjective and can be volatile. Predictions for such events are inherently less accurate than, for example, election outcomes. Despite the strong 24h delta, the open interest of $1,843.86 and volume of $7,191.78 are moderate, meaning relatively small amounts of capital can cause significant price swings. The market’s limited depth means price is highly sensitive to individual trades. The market move could be purely speculative or technical, a bounce after an extended period of ‘No’ favor, rather than a direct reaction to fundamental news. The ‘Steam Best Games of 2025’ lists, while relevant, do not directly confirm award winners.

What To Investigate

Building on All Out Gaming’s reporting, journalists should verify: – Investigate community sentiment: Monitor gaming forums and social media for discussions around ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’s’ story quality compared to other 2025 releases, especially those highlighted in recent ‘Steam Best Games’ lists. – Contact Warhorse Studios (developers): Are there any upcoming announcements, patches, or developer interviews that could influence public perception of the game’s story? – Review competitor performance: Analyze the critical reception and player feedback for other strong contenders in the ‘Outstanding Story-Rich Game’ category, cross-referencing with the ‘Steam Best of 2025’ lists. – Examine Steam Award nomination process: Clarify the exact timeline and criteria for nominations and community voting for the ‘Outstanding Story-Rich Game’ category for 2025. – Poll gaming journalists/critics: What are their early predictions or dark horses for the ‘Outstanding Story-Rich Game’ award, and how does ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’ stack up?

What Happens Next

Traders might watch for further community reactions to the recently released ‘Steam Best Games of 2025’ lists. Any new announcements from Warhorse Studios or significant shifts in critical reception for ‘Kingdom Come: Deliverance II’ could influence its odds. A sustained move below 70% for ‘No’ could signal stronger conviction in the game’s win, while a rebound above 75% might suggest a technical correction.

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 821059
  • Token ID: 23661773594696040916746794344638835041799705339568285185221582760666409174588
  • Quality Score: 7/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.08%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.17%
  • Current Price: $0.73
  • Volume (24h): $7,192
  • Open Interest: $1,844

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.