Markets suggest a nine-darter at the PDC World Darts Championship is becoming MORE likely, with the ‘No’ outcome falling from 37.8% to 34.0% in 24 hours. This shift follows the resumption of the tournament with key matches and top players in action.

Asymmetry Analysis

The market for a ‘No’ (no nine-darter) saw a slight increase of 1.95% over the past 7 days, but this trend was sharply reversed in the last 24 hours with a significant 10.07% drop. This strong asymmetry suggests a sudden shift in trader sentiment, potentially triggered by the ongoing matches and the performance of high-profile players. The reversal appears to have intensified as Day 14 and Day 15 of the tournament commenced, coinciding with reports of key matches and player updates from Sporting News and Sky Sports.

Interpretation

This market movement appears to reflect renewed optimism among traders that a nine-darter could occur in the remaining stages of the PDC World Darts Championship. The return of top players like Luke Littler, who is in strong form as reported by Sky Sports, might be a significant factor. The ‘BULL_TO_BEAR_CRASH’ reversal type indicates a rapid and forceful repositioning of market participants, potentially liquidating ‘No’ positions in anticipation of this rare event.

Research Leads

  • Contact PDC officials: Are there any specific conditions or rule interpretations this year that might make a nine-darter more (or less) likely?
  • Interview darts commentators/analysts: Which players currently in the draw have the highest historical probability of hitting a nine-darter in a competitive match?
  • Analyze player form: Are there any statistical anomalies in recent match play (e.g., higher average scores, more 180s) that could signal an increased chance for a nine-darter?
  • Review betting market odds: How do traditional sportsbooks’ odds for a nine-darter compare to the current prediction market sentiment, and what might explain any divergence?

Context

Nine-darters are extremely rare in professional darts, making them a highly anticipated event in major tournaments. The PDC World Darts Championship is the sport’s pinnacle, attracting the best players, which historically increases the chances, albeit still very slim, of such a feat. The market’s previous upward trend for ‘No’ likely reflected the inherent difficulty of the achievement, but recent tournament activity seems to be challenging that consensus.

Confidence & Caveats

Prediction markets for sports, especially for specific rare events, typically operate with accuracy rates around 60-70%. While the signal strength is moderate (10.07% move) and the pattern is clear, the low open interest ($2,205) means this market could be particularly susceptible to the influence of a few larger trades. Therefore, the signal might reflect concentrated sentiment rather than a broad consensus.

What Next

Traders might monitor the performance of top players in upcoming matches for any signs of exceptional form or near-nine-darters. The market could react sharply to any player reaching an eight-dart checkout, or to further high-profile upsets that shift perceived player momentum.

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 789155
  • Token ID: 87462828648317597297261793736058454965255806946404537644818297752589399500899
  • Quality Score: 6/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.02%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.10%
  • Current Price: $0.34
  • Volume (24h): $1,017
  • Open Interest: $2,205

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.