HEADLINE: Dota 2: AVULUS defies week-long trend with sudden shift

LEAD: Prediction markets suggest a significant loss of confidence in AVULUS’s chances in Game 2 against Winter Bear, with odds for AVULUS dropping by nearly 38% in the last 24 hours, despite a week-long upward trend.

🆕 NEWS CONTEXT: Recent developments that may have influenced the market: – “Kalmychata — Peru Rejects: прогноз (кэф 1.67) и ставка 26 декабря 2025” (Ставка ТВ, 19 hours ago): This snippet, while related to Dota 2, is too old to directly correlate with the sharp 24-hour price movement.

ASYMMETRY ANALYSIS: The 7-day trend showed AVULUS gaining 5.45%, but this completely reversed in the last 24 hours with a dramatic 37.99% decline. This asymmetry could suggest: 1) New, undisclosed information has emerged that negatively impacts AVULUS’s prospects. 2) The market might be undergoing a significant technical correction after a period of overvaluation. 3) The reversal could be due to strong bearish sentiment driven by recent unconfirmed performance observations. There is no direct timing correlation with the provided news snippet, which is 19 hours old.

INTERPRETATION: This sentiment shift appears to reflect a sudden and strong belief among traders that AVULUS is significantly less likely to win Game 2 than previously thought. The magnitude of the move, despite the lack of fresh, directly correlated news, could indicate an underlying fundamental change in perception or a strong technical sell-off.

RESEARCH LEADS: – Contact AVULUS team management: Any recent changes in player lineup, strategy, or internal issues affecting performance? – Review recent AVULUS matches (last 48 hours): Are there any performance indicators or tactical weaknesses that explain the sudden drop in confidence? – Analyze betting patterns on major esports platforms: Is there unusual volume or large bets placed against AVULUS? – Poll esports analysts/commentators: What is the current sentiment regarding AVULUS’s form and their matchup against Winter Bear? – Check official Dota 2 tournament news sites: Any announcements or rule changes that might indirectly impact AVULUS?

CONTEXT: This market is for a specific game within a larger CIS Battle Group Stage match. Outcomes in such markets can be highly sensitive to team form, individual player performance, and strategic leaks.

CONFIDENCE & CAVEATS: Esports markets typically have an accuracy rate of around 55-65%. The signal could change rapidly due to the market’s low liquidity ($583 volume, $1,922 OI) and the potential for a technical rebound or the emergence of new information.

WHAT NEXT: Over the next 24-72 hours, observers might look for any official team statements, tournament updates, or significant shifts in betting patterns on other platforms. A continued decline below the 0.40 mark could confirm bearish sentiment, while a recovery above 0.60 might signal a market correction.

Related News Sources

Market Metadata

  • Market ID: 986950
  • Token ID: 36467681188223025151049834461490612391110144535634996353952073464445530037903
  • Quality Score: 6/9
  • Classification: Market Shift
  • 7-Day Trend: 0.05%
  • 24-Hour Trend: -0.38%
  • Current Price: $0.51
  • Volume (24h): $583
  • Open Interest: $1,922

Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets. Analysis generated by PredSignal AI.